David J.
Danto
Business travel
thoughts in my own, personal opinion
eMail: ddanto@IMCCA.org Follow Industry News: @NJDavidD
NOT Traveling Blog, 4th
Week Of September
In 2014 I was voted
by USA Today readers as one of the top ten business travel bloggers in the
USA. Now mind you,
I turned out to be number ten on the list of ten, but I did make it on (with my
thanks to all those who voted.) Now
that we’re all stuck at home and not traveling, I had to think about what to do
with my blogs. I could stop writing them
entirely – waiting till we all get through the current COVID19 pandemic /
crisis. I could wax nostalgic and/or complain
about past trips. Or, I could focus all
of my efforts on my day job – growing the use of collaboration technologies –
especially in light of how many people are now forced to use those tools for
the first time. In reflecting upon those
choices, what I decided to do is compile an ongoing list of observations during
the crisis. Some of these may amuse,
some may inform, some may sadden and others may help. My goal will be for you to have seen
something in a different light than you did before you stopped to read the
blog. I was going to apologize for how
disjointed these thoughts may seem when put together, but then it dawned on me
that feeling disjointed is our new normal – at least for a little while.
There were some interesting announcements in the last couple of weeks
that you may have missed. I usually attend many of the
larger technology/business conferences throughout a normal year – so I keep
track of their schedules. As you know
however, 2020 has not been a normal year.
Sadly, it now looks like 2021 may be lost as well. Weeks ago, the largest conference in the US –
the CES Show (formerly the Consumer Electronics Show) cancelled their
in-person Las Vegas event in January and is going “all digital.” That is quite a hit to the Las Vegas economy,
as CES is very lucrative for the tourism industry there. (Remember, I’ve documented the price gouging
there for this event in the past.) Add
to that, in the past week we’ve learned that Enterprise Connect (usually in Orlando
in March) is already showing that their conference will be moved to fall 2021. (They haven’t made an announcement, but their
website shows “Fall 2021” in the header.)
Then in addition, the National Association of Broadcasters announced
their usually April show in Las Vegas will be moved to October 2021. Both of these leapfrogged the ISE Show’s
February event in Barcelona, which finally saw the writing on the wall and
announced that their event would be “postponed” as well. (“Postponed” is a euphemism that’s getting a
lot of use lately from organizations that can’t bring themselves to telling the
truth about cancelling their in-person events.)
When one steps back and looks at these announcements together, it
becomes obvious that we will not have “normal” business travel again for at
least EIGHT MORE MONTHS, and that only takes the currently cancelled or
postponed events into consideration. I’d
have to conclude that having these kind of events return even in mid-2021 is pretty
optimistic at this point.
What does eight more months of life like it is now mean to
each of us? Let’s speculate just a bit to
explore that question:
· Tourism based economies will probably
completely fall apart. Airlines, hotels,
live theaters, movie theaters, restaurants, etc. – it’s potentially a huge
list. I don’t think most people are
prepared for how devastating these failures will be. As Joe Brancatelli
already reported, the New York hotels The Hilton Times Square, The Marriott
East Side and The Courtyard Herald Square have already announced permanent closures. “Paradise” destinations like Hawaii whose
entire economies are based on tourism are suffering
through devastation that was once inconceivable. These are all only the tip of the iceberg.
· Firms that make their living on the
large business conferences which aren’t happening are in significant
trouble. As the pandemic cancellations approach
March 2021 there are events that will need to be cancelled/postponed for a
second year in a row. It’s doubtful that
all of the organizations (both for profit and non-profit) that put on these
events can survive a second year with little or no income. The truth is, sadly, that some of these
events are probably never coming back.
· Many people are afraid to go
shopping. This has been a huge benefit
to on-line vendors, but a death blow to many brick and mortar retailers. Lord & Taylor –
the first department store in the US – is closing
all its stores. New York’s Century
21 chain is doing the same. Many
other chains are shrinking and closing stores.
Business Insider reports that firms worth a record 46 billion dollars
have already filed for bankruptcy. All
of this represents a double whammy. Yes,
we’ve lost or are losing these companies to patronize, but as they wind-down,
everyone employed there will be out of work.
Every supplier that these firms purchased-from will be losing a
customer, and these secondary firms may not be able to survive that loss either. If you think things are bad now, be prepared
for everything to get much, much worse very soon.
As for knowledge workers like myself, be prepared to be in
the current Hybrid Working / Working From Home mode for a heck of a lot longer. Clearly there are eight more months of this
as I’ve described above, but again, I believe that is actually an optimistic prediction. Some organizations are re-opening their
offices with appropriate precautions and distancing, but going into them will
probably be the exception for most knowledge workers doing individual
work. If you haven’t set up a home
office / workstation that’s a whole lot better than your “temporary, emergency”
earbuds and a PC or tablet with a built-in camera then you’d better get moving –
possibly literally. People are moving
out of cramped urban apartments that used to be near their offices and heading
for suburban and rural residences – ones where they have the room to set-up
a home office and/or spot where their children can participate in on-line
learning. These home offices should be
making use of bigger displays, higher-quality external cameras,
noise-cancelling headsets or speaker/mic devices, and face lighting to look one’s
best. If your supervisors, co-workers,
clients and potential clients are only seeing you over Zoom or some other video
services, you had better make sure you look and sound your best for the long
haul. (Some employers are actually providing
gear and/or funding to accomplish this – so be sure to check into that.) If this is something you haven’t done yet you’d
better hurry up. Suburban and rural real
estate costs are going through the roof, and high-quality collaboration
products are temporarily still in short supply.
Did this blog’s pessimism get you down? Well, me too.
I apologize for being more honest and blunt here than most organizations
are seemingly doing nowadays, but sugar-coating the truth doesn’t help people
be prepared. My hope is that you’ll be
one of the people that gets appropriately prepared to survive and thrive during
this insanity.
As always, please feel free to write to me with comments or
items I should add to a future Not Traveling blog (or if you just need someone
to write to.) Stay safe, be well, hug
those you’re sheltering with (but no one else) and do your best to stay
positive. We’re going to be in this for
a long while.
This article was written by David Danto and contains solely his own, personal
opinions.
All image and links provided above as reference under
prevailing fair use statutes.