David J.
Danto
Business travel
thoughts in my own, personal opinion
eMail: ddanto@IMCCA.org Follow Industry News: @NJDavidD
NOT Traveling Blog, 1st
Week Of June
In 2014 I was voted
by USA Today readers as one of the top ten business travel bloggers in the
USA. Now mind you, I turned out to be number ten on the list of ten, but I did
make it on (with my thanks to all those who voted.) Now that we’re all stuck at home and not
traveling, I had to think about what to do with my blogs. I could stop writing them entirely – waiting
till we all get through the current COVID19 pandemic / crisis. I could wax nostalgic and/or complain about
past trips. Or, I could focus all of my
efforts on my day job – growing the use of collaboration technologies –
especially in light of how many people are now forced to use those tools for
the first time. In reflecting upon those
choices, what I decided to do is compile an ongoing list of observations during
the crisis. Some of these may amuse,
some may inform, some may sadden and others may help. My goal will be for you to have seen
something in a different light than you did before you stopped to read the
blog. I was going to apologize for how
disjointed these thoughts may seem when put together, but then it dawned on me
that feeling disjointed is our new normal – at least for a little while.
So, in no particular
order:
·
Wow
– June. By my count I’ve been sheltering
in place for 66 days. Some areas of the
US are now re-opening because they want to – and arguably need to in order to
prevent further economic damage – but not because the crisis is over. Anyone paying attention will realize we are
far from over with this. Sadly, many are
not paying attention, and they will likely be victims of the next wave. Doing something because we want to, but not
because we’re ready to, is very dangerous.
Wanting things to be back to normal and having things be normal are two
different things. NASA used to refer to this
phenomenon as “Go Fever”
in the moon-shot days – and nothing is
more dangerous to any mission. Or,
if you prefer another perspective on how this push to open before we have a
handle on everything is being referred to on social media, see the image below:
·
It’s
stunning to think that people are seeing the wearing of masks to protect others
as some sort of political statement. I’d
ask just how stupid people really are, but that’s a question think I already,
sadly, know the answer to. I’ll just
leave it at a request to please wear your damn masks. And here’s another (NSFW) social media meme
for you on the topic:
·
This
COVID19 pandemic has upended much of our lives, and when we look back at it, it
will clearly have been the inflection point for many major changes in society
and culture. Already we are seeing
signs that urban housing is dropping in value and suburban and rural housing is
increasing in value. People are leaving crowded
cities for many reasons – out of fear of catching the virus, because people now
realize that knowledge workers can truly work remotely from anywhere, because
suburban supermarkets are generally less crowded and better stocked, or
generally to avoid having to be bunched together in multiple situations. I predict these changes will outlive the
virus. We can expect to see things like
huge office towers become less desirable for businesses and at least partially
be converted to housing. Restaurants and
other service businesses will also disperse from crowded cities and move
further into the suburbs as well. All
parts of our economy and society that counted upon dense cities and sparse
suburbs will likely begin to shift. Historically,
pandemics have always been a catalyst for major cultural changes, and this one
will be no exception.
·
Of
course, the travel industry will be subject to this major societal and cultural
change as well. While government
bailouts have somewhat masked the impact for now, just wait a bit. Already American
Airlines has announced they’re cutting 30% of management staff, and the
other airlines will surely follow. After
the 9/11 crisis there was a lull, but then people started flying again when
they felt it was safe. No one paying
attention thinks it’s safe to fly yet (much less safe to ride in taxis and/or
stay in hotels.) As I’ve said before, we’re
putting Darwin in the driver’s seat. Before
9/11 I could book a ticket with just my first initial – after 9/11 we needed to
use full, legal names. Before 9/11 I
could bring my young kids through security and hang-out in the airline club
(where I had a paid membership.) After
9/11 that was no longer permitted. Those
have become permanent changes. Expect
more of those permanent changes in the travel industry in response to this
pandemic – which will also be likely never go back to the way it was before.
·
As
long as I’m remembering 9/11, one of the long term winners past that tragedy
was Las Vegas. Americans who were afraid
of international travel rushed to this domestic ‘playground’ in numbers never
seen prior to 9/11. I can remember being
in Vegas in August before 9/11 – with temperatures soaring into the 110s – and having
it be like a ghost town, with hotels giving away rooms at a loss and sparse
visitors. After 9/11 the usually dead
Vegas summer disappeared. Occupancy
around the town became heavy almost all year.
Well, in the ‘what goes around comes around’ category, Vegas is going to
be one of the hardest hit after the COVID19 pandemic. Much of what people went there for will have
to change. Large banks of tightly packed
slot machines are essentially just germ depositories; card-game tables forced
people to sit next to each other and face the dealer; buffet/self-serve
restaurants were the loss-leader that drew-in huge numbers of guests and are
now history; packed restaurants that were the norm now need to space-people out;
and I have no idea how day-pool-parties and nightclubs that were usually packed
with people will safely cope. Without a
vaccine or effective treatment, gambling in Vegas will have a whole new meaning
– and one with much higher stakes. Most
casinos have announced openings in the first week of June, albeit with “extra
steps” like temperature checks, heightened cleaning and mask-wearing. I wish I could see these as a successful
event, but I just can’t. It’s like roller-skating
while holding a tray of powerful explosives.
Sure, if you do absolutely everything right you may get a thrill, but
one tiny mistake and you’ll destroy all the people for a couple of city blocks
around you. I just don’t see the gamble
as worth the risk.
·
Did
you see the news item about Boeing
starting-back-up building 737-Max aircraft?
I had to read it three times and blink a few times just to be sure I
read it correctly. Really? I mean……really? That’s like reading that that the company who
built the damaged electrical boxes used on the Towering Inferno
has gone back into production of them.
They’re building questionably designed, poorly managed, un-cleared-for-use
aircraft that may never be allowed to fly for an industry that has already has hundreds
of aircraft parked in deserts around the world due to lack of demand.
Really? (Sorry – I’m still struggling
with this one.)
·
All
of the above makes me think we need a new term for people who aren’t paying
attention to what’s really happening and risking their
and other lives. I’ve toyed with “Darwins,” the New Jersey based “knuckleheads,” “guinea pigs,”
and the simple “idiots,” and none of them seem to fit the bill for the
personality of people who have all the scientific evidence in front of them and
are too thick to take appropriate precautions either out of a mob mentality or an
acceptance of misinformation that things are safe when they clearly are
not. (100,000 Americans don’t die from
something ‘less dangerous than the flu.’)
If you have any better suggestions for what we’ll call this first wave
of ‘volunteers’ please let me know and I’ll use that going forward.
As always, please feel free to write to me with comments or
items I should add to a future Not Traveling blog (or if you just need someone
to write to.) Stay safe, be well, hug
those you’re sheltering with (but no one else) and do your best to stay
positive. We’re going to be in this for
a long while.
This article was written by David Danto and contains solely his own, personal opinions.
All image and links provided above as reference under
prevailing fair use statutes.