David J.
Danto
Business travel
thoughts in my own, personal opinion
eMail: ddanto@IMCCA.org Follow Industry News: @NJDavidD
NOT Traveling Blog, 1st
Week Of December 2020
David Danto’s ongoing list of disjointed and occasionally random
observations and thoughts as we wait-out the pandemic – mostly NOT traveling
like we used to.
In the upcoming week the calendar
will flip to December. In one of my first Not Traveling
blogs – back at the beginning of April – I wrote “We’re going to be in this for a long while. IMHO anybody who thinks this will only be
going on for a couple of weeks isn’t paying attention.” Do you believe me
yet? With the prospects of a vaccine for
COVID19 finally on the horizon (even though many
are warning its side effects will be no picnic) we can finally look toward
mid-summer 2021 as a time when we can return to normal. Or... can we?
There is an old (mostly disproven) fable
about frogs and boiling water. From Wikipedia, “The premise is that if a frog is put
suddenly into boiling water, it will jump out, but if the frog is put in tepid
water which is then brought to a boil slowly, it will not perceive the danger
and will be cooked to death.” I
believe, in the context of COVID19 and the concept of ‘normal,’ we’re all frogs, not fully realizing the magnitude of
change we’re experiencing.
When we live through a period of fundamental and monumental
change – as we are doing right now – we tend not to recognize just how enormous
the change is and will be. As I’ve said
before, it took a deadly pandemic for society to realize that knowledge workers
do not need to commute to an office to be effective. All of the scapegoating of remote workers
over the years was pure bunk. People are
definitely able to perform individual work remotely, and be more productive in the process. That realization is most assuredly a domino
that will inevitably knock down many others in front of it. This will affect technology, business and
society in many profound ways not yet fully realized by everyone.
· For starters, travel will be a thing
we do only when we want or need to, not when we have to. As I’ve been saying for years, business
travel to a client or conference is not really in jeopardy in the long run, but
a daily commute to an ‘office’ to
work from a desk is definitely an endangered species. There’s no need to travel somewhere for a
couple of hours a day (usually in awful, rush-hour conditions) just to do
things one can do from home.
· Once the above is fully realized, the
typical office will change. It will no
longer be as it has been – designed with ~70% desks and offices and ~30%
meeting rooms. That ratio will flip, as
the purpose of the office becomes collaboration – Brainstorming, Celebrating, Planning – and simple camaraderie. These group functions will be the reason we
choose to occasionally head-in to an office, not because we have to.
· Because of the above, organizations
will no longer need massive office footprints in big cities. ~50 floors will
become ~20. ~20 floors will become
~5. These smaller offices will no longer
just be in big cities, but will become dispersed further into suburban areas. The economics of real estate prices and the
enormous savings that will result from the change will be irresistible to most
firms.
· Because of that one, retail
establishments and restaurants geared toward the huge commuting population will
likely fade away and never reopen after the pandemic. Just as with real estate, the economics of
those just no longer make sense. How can
you operate a restaurant meant to serve the hordes of people at lunch when
there are no longer any hordes of people commuting? Restaurants and retail establishments in
general will not go away, but they will become smaller and more dispersed.
· Additionally, as this inevitable
trend toward Hybrid
Working continues, the very places we live will change. People will decide to live where they want to
based upon schools, community, family or other factors – not simply being a ‘reasonable commute distance’ away from
a big city. Also, our homes themselves
will change, as many decide to create permanent workstations in their houses
and apartments, instead of using the kitchen table or spare bedroom that were
grabbed in a pinch as lockdowns began.
The equipment we use for working remotely and in the office will also
change. Instead of being klugey set-ups made up of low-quality
gear on hand, our conference rooms will all be equipped with smarter, easier to
use collaboration devices, and our home workstations will use high-quality
components like lighting, displays, cameras and headsets meant to enable the
best possible quality sound and images.
So, with vaccines and better treatment now something we can
look forward to – hopefully by mid-summer 2021 – we will indeed find some
relief from the dumpster fire that was 2020.
However, you should expect that our ‘normal’ has indeed radically
changed. No matter how much one might
want to, that old-normal genie is
just never going back into the bottle.
Should you believe my predictions above? Well, that’s up to you of course. I’ll just remind you (again) that I
predicted the current pandemic back in 2014 and warned organizations to get
their remote capabilities ready for it.
My caution was not to ignore clear warning signs. Just take this blog as the current warning
sign. You can choose to ignore it or
not.
As always, please feel
free to write to me with comments or items I should add to a future Not
Traveling blog (or if you just need someone to write to.) Stay safe, be well, hug those you’re
sheltering with (but no one else) and do your best to stay positive. We’re going to be in this for a while
longer.
This article was written by David Danto and contains solely his own, personal
opinions.
All image and links provided above as reference under
prevailing fair use statutes.
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The Explanation
for my Not Traveling blogs: In 2014 I was voted
by USA Today readers as one of the top ten business travel bloggers in the
USA. Now mind you,
I turned out to be number ten on the list of ten, but I did make it on (with my
thanks to all those who voted.) Now
that we’re all stuck at home and not traveling, I had to think about what to do
with my blogs. I could stop writing them
entirely – waiting till we all get through the current COVID19 pandemic /
crisis. I could wax nostalgic and/or
complain about past trips. Or, I could
focus all of my efforts on my day job – growing the use of collaboration
technologies – especially in light of how many people are now forced to use
those tools for the first time. In
reflecting upon those choices, what I decided to do is compile an ongoing list
of observations during the crisis. Some
of these may amuse, some may inform, some may sadden and others may help. My goal will be for you to have seen
something in a different light than you did before you stopped to read the
blog. I was going to apologize for how
disjointed these thoughts may seem when put together, but then it dawned on me
that feeling disjointed is our new normal – at least for a little while.